XAUUSD MACRO FOCUS

ตลาดพักตัวช่วงสุดสัปดาห์ ทองคำรักษาระดับเหนือ 4,000 ดอลลาร์

Gold Holds Above $4,000 as Markets Enter Weekend Pause

ดัชนีดอลลาร์ทรงตัวในระดับสูง ขณะที่บอนด์ยีลด์ 10 ปีทรงตัวใกล้ระดับ 5.00%

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

MACRO TAKEAWAY

The Fed delivered the expected 25bp hike and retained another 2026 move. USD and front-end yields rose, while lower oil kept the US 10Y near 5%. BOJ is next.

MARKET CONTEXT

REAL-TIME SNAPSHOT

US 2Y

4.7174%

latest Asia

NEXT HIKE

~90%

priced in

S&P 500 FUT

5,685.25

+0.35% Asia

MARKET PULSE

KEY BENCHMARKS • 24H MOVE

US 10Y YIELD

5.00%

at threshold +2.4 bps

DXY (DOLLAR)

100.36

overnight +0.7% o/n

GOLD (XAU/USD)

$4,295.26

firming +0.8% Asia

BRENT OIL

$105.67

softening -0.2% Asia

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

• FOREX FACTORY (BANGKOK TIME)

เวลา (ไทย)	สกุลเงิน	เหตุการณ์ / ตัวเลขเศรษฐกิจ	ผลกระทบ	คาดการณ์	ครั้งก่อน

THE STORY

In one line: The Fed confirmed a longer tightening path, but falling oil has kept the long-end response contained.

The 25bp hike to 3.75%-4.00% was expected. The hawkish signal came from projections: another 2026 hike remains, while the prior 2027 cut disappeared.

DXY reached 100.36 and US 2Y 4.7174%. US 10Y held near 5% as Brent fell to $105.67, moderating long-term inflation break-evens.

The next test is whether BOJ guidance can narrow policy divergence without reigniting duration stress.

WHAT IT MEANS

GOLD Gold near $4,295 is recovering, but a firmer USD and higher front-end yields still cap upside.

RATES The curve is flatter: front-end yields confirm the Fed path while US 10Y near 5% avoids a fresh duration breakout.

XAU/USD KEY PIVOTS

KEY PIVOTS

LATEST

5.00%

latest

EXTENSION

5.05%

trigger

RELIEF

4.95%

support

MARKET TRANSMISSION

FLOW SEQUENCE

RETAIL

+1.2%

›

FED

+25bp

›

US 2Y

4.72%

›

USD

firmer

›

ASIA

firmer

WHAT TO WATCH

CATALYSTS

BOE POLICY DECISION 18:00 ICT

US 10Y AT 5.05% EXTENSION

BOJ MONETARY POLICY POLICY WATCH

WHAT NEXT: US 10Y PLAYBOOK

Scenario Framework

SCENARIO	CONDITION	RATES / USD	GOLD & EQUITIES
RELIEF	< 4.95%	Long-end pressure eases; front-end pause priced	Gold and duration recover strongly
BASE	4.95% – <5.05%	Fed tightening: orderly trade, no duration breakout	Gold constrained; equities selective
EXTENSION	≥ 5.05%	Inflation / term premium reprices; dollar surges	Gold pressured; broader risk weaker

Market Read: US 10Y at 5.00% sits in BASE. The Fed secured front-end and USD confirmation without a fresh long-end breakout; BOJ is next.